The global trade landscape has entered a moment of cautious optimism. In its latest update released in October, the WTO revised its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent, significantly higher than earlier expectations. At the same time, the outlook for 2026 has been adjusted downward, with growth now projected at only 0.5 percent. This dual signal reflects a complex environment marked by short-term recovery and medium-term uncertainty.
The upward revision for 2025 is driven largely by a surge in imports in the United States earlier this year, as companies accelerated shipments in anticipation of tariff changes. The WTO also highlights the growing role of technology-related goods, including components connected to artificial intelligence, which continue to support trade volumes in high value sectors.
Looking ahead, the moderation expected in 2026 reflects the delayed effect of higher tariffs and persistent geopolitical and supply chain challenges. Slower demand growth, tighter financial conditions and structural adjustments in global logistics networks are also expected to play a role.
For companies operating in global supply chains, particularly those active in energy, commodities and shipping, these projections offer important guidance. Near term momentum suggests a window of opportunity for exporters, traders and logistics operators, with trade flows remaining resilient through 2025. The softer expectations for 2026, however, indicate a need to prepare for more selective growth and greater cost pressures across transport and supply chain operations.
In commodity markets, a stronger 2025 outlook may support continued demand for raw materials and energy inputs, while the shift toward high value technology-linked products underscores the importance of diversification and agility for producers and traders. In the maritime sector, shipping operators should expect continued volumes in the short term, followed by a potential recalibration in fleet deployment, contract structures and cost management as trade growth cools.
For cross-border businesses, particularly those connecting Europe and Latin America, planning ahead becomes essential. Companies navigating international trade flows, logistics contracts and regulatory environments will benefit from anticipating market adjustments and adapting commercial strategies accordingly.
Trade may be gaining pace today but forward thinking and preparedness remain key. As the global economic cycle evolves, those who position early will be better placed to sustain performance across shifting conditions. SMBC Law is here to support companies as they navigate these developments and plan ahead.
